The inter-Korean communication line, which was stopped by North Korea in protest against the start of this summer joint US-South Korea exercise, shows no sign of reopening despite the end of the exercise. The inter-Korean relationship seems to have returned to its previous state as the inter-Korean communication channel, which was restored on July 27, after the two Koreas overcame a 13-month break, pledged to restore mutual trust and improve relations, was cut off.
The suspension of the ROK-U.S. joint exercise was a response by the United States to North Korea’s cessation of nuclear tests and ICBM tests. It is an extension of the Singapore Declaration. In the past, team spirit training was also suspended in consideration of inter-Korean relations.
After about a year of severance, the two Koreas had a difficult time restoring mutual trust and developing relations. Moreover, considering that the current government’s term of office is short, it seems that the two Koreas have returned to a conflicting relationship, which leaves a great regret.
It is reported that this exercise did not help much in the return of wartime OPCON. In order to continue the defense-purpose joint ROK-U.S. joint exercise in the future, this summer exercise was suspended or suspended, and inter-Korean relations were put on track again. An agreement could have been reached.
However, for peace on the Korean Peninsula and for the peaceful denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, dialogue must begin again. The US says it is not hostile to North Korea and is proposing to meet “anytime, anywhere, without conditions.” However, North Korea is demanding the withdrawal of the US hostile policy and demanding that the US take corresponding confidence-building measures, such as halting the ROK-US joint exercise, in response to North Korea’s preemptive measures such as halting nuclear and ICBM tests.
North Korea is unlikely to engage in dialogue unless the US takes corresponding measures. It seems that the internal conditions of North Korea are difficult due to sanctions, corona, flood, etc., so it seems to give priority to self-reliance and self-sufficiency. It has also been officially revealed that there is no room for talks like the Hanoi and Stockholm talks.
In the end, North Korea-US relations are returning to the era of “strategic patience” during the Obama administration, when North Korea again engages in “unconditional dialogue” or responds with sanctions if North Korea provokes.
Concerns have been raised over North Korea’s nuclear program when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced yesterday that the Yongbyon 5MW nuclear reactor, which had been shut down since December 2018, appears to be operating again in July this year.
North Korea still maintains the position of denuclearization, which will give up its nuclear weapons as long as the military threat to North Korea announced by Chairman Kim Jong-un in March 2018 is removed and the North Korean regime is not threatened.
However, they are also expressing their position that they will advance their nuclear armament for the sake of North Korea’s security unless a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula is established. It is professing to increase the number of nuclear warheads, to diversify them, and to diversify the means of delivery. Sweden’s Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a world-class research institute on strategic issues, estimates that North Korea increased its nuclear warheads by about 10 last year alone. The restart of the Yongbyon reactor is not new.
There is nothing more precious to us than peace on the Korean Peninsula. The peaceful denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is also in the interests of the United States.
With the suspension or suspension of the ROK-U.S. joint exercise, the opportunity to catalyze inter-Korean and North Korea-US dialogue has disappeared, but the United States must respond to North Korea’s preemptive measures in any other form and show its will to implement the Singapore Agreement.
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